Soda Ash Market Price Trend Analysis and Forecast

This week, the domestic soda ash market trend is light and stable, the price is firm and the transaction is flexible. Lonzong information data monitoring, the comprehensive capacity utilisation rate of soda ash 81.85%, 87.78% last week, down 5.93 percentage points from the previous year. Soda ash production 682,400 tonnes, down 49,400 tonnes, down 6.76%. Individual enterprises overhaul, soda ash production and start-up decline; weekly inventory of soda ash manufacturers 1,557,400 tonnes, a decrease of 48,800 tonnes, or 2.99%, compared with Monday. It decreased 77,100 tonnes or 4.72% from last Thursday. Individual area inventory decline, some enterprises production and sales are basically balanced; Soda ash enterprises during the week pending orders close to 13 days, a narrow decline. Towards the end of the month, the process of receiving orders, each of the current order situation is different; it is understood that the delivery bank inventory increased by 2 +, the total amount of close to 430,000 tonnes. During the week, it is understood that the downstream glass enterprise raw material inventory, 31% of the sample factory 17.52 days, an increase of 2.97 days, the factory + to be sent 25.84 days, an increase of 5.66 days; 38 of the sample, factory 17.14 days, an increase of 2.94 days, the field + to be sent 24.38 days, an increase of 5.21 days; 46% of the sample, the field 16.74 days, the field + to be sent 23.18 days, an increase of 3.84 days. On the supply side, there are recent factors such as enterprise overhaul and individual enterprises are about to overhaul, resulting in a decline in start-up and production, and it is expected that the overall start-up and production will continue to be at a lower level next week, with a start-up rate of about 81% and an output of 680,000+ tonnes. From the plan of the device, it is expected that the subsequent production recovery faster. At present, the enterprise price is stable and oscillating, and the transaction is based on the procurement volume, and the price is flexible. On the demand side, the demand for soda ash is normal, and the just-demand replenishment is mainly. From the current understanding, the downstream began to start the pre-holiday replenishment, the procurement volume of each family is different, increasing one after another. High inventory enterprises to maintain on-demand procurement, maintain inventory, low inventory to follow up to replenish the volume. Enterprises close to the alkali plant, keep low inventory, logistics have less impact. Downstream overall consumption is expected to decline next month, there are industries in a state of holiday. Recently, logistics and freight rates remain locally tight, and freight rates are rising. During the week, the float daily melt volume of 160,200 tonnes, an increase of 1,100 tonnes, PV 85,400 tonnes, a decrease of 300 tonnes. Next week, the float is expected to reduce 600 tonnes, PV stable. In summary, the short-term trend of soda ash shock trend, a single negotiation. (longzong imformation)