Melamine price trend analysis

2023-04-21421

This week (2023.4.14-2023.4.20) melamine market to promote stability, prices rose local small. As of this Thursday, the average price of melamine in the market was 7158 yuan/ton, 19 yuan/ton lower than the average price of the same period last week, or 0.27% lower. Overall, this week, the mainstream focus of the melamine market has moved up, the raw material urea market is mainly weak operation, the positive effect of the melamine market is not enough; Due to the newly added maintenance devices in Anhui, Xinjiang and Henan, the industrial load decreased slightly, and the inventory pressure of melamine manufacturers was slightly eased. In addition, as the price continued to drop, the profit space was damaged, and some melamine manufacturers were increasingly willing to raise the price, and the local quotation increased slightly. Current market mainstream factory reference price 6700-7000 yuan/ton.

Supply side: The melamine industry operated 57.47% this week, down 4.14% from last week, with weekly production of about 25,600 tons. Although Shanxi Fengxi and Hubei Dangyang Huaqiang have resumed production devices this week, due to the newly added maintenance devices in Kuitun of Xinjiang, Huertai of Anhui and Haohua Junhua of Henan, the operating rate of the overall melamine industry decreased slightly and the weekly output also decreased, but the market supply is still abundant. At present, Henan Jinshan, Sichuan Meiqing, Xinjiang Wupetrochemical, Guangxi Tianhe, Chongqing Jianfeng, Jiangsu Yuxiang Hongze, Anhui Huertai melamine device all stop; Xinjiang Yuxiang melamine device stop a set; Shandong Shuntian Chemical melamine device stop four sets; Henan Haohua Junhua melamine device stop three sets; Hebei Xinji nine yuan melamine device stop a set; Shanxi Fengxi melamine device stop three sets; Xinjiang Kuitun melamine device stop two sets of production time to be determined.

Demand side: this week melamine market trading atmosphere slightly improved, downstream appropriate to follow up. Because the demand terminal of melamine is the real estate industry, under the downward trend of the real estate industry, the shipment of melamine downstream plate factories and rubber plate factories is not smooth, the product inventory is high, the operation is limited, the purchase demand of raw material melamine is limited, and the goods need to be taken, which is not obvious to boost the market.

Afternoon forecast: raw material surface, urea market price will be stable, its downstream traders prepare fertilizer enthusiasm, more for summer agricultural fertilizer preparation, but there are still some areas of lukewarm performance, market demand is mixed, mixed, on melamine market drive general. In terms of supply and demand, some devices in Anhui and Shandong have production resumption plans, and the industrial load will recover to about 60% fluctuation. The market supply is abundant, while the downstream demand is limited, and the contradiction between market supply and demand still exists. In addition, the quotation of some manufacturers has risen slightly recently, and the downstream feedback is not good, so the market fundamentals are limited. In general, it is expected that next week the melamine price will be large stable small movement, the price range or will be 6700-7000 yuan/ton.