[Zhuo Chuang information report] Soda: market decline to expand short - term still have a certain downside space

    In 2023, the supply and demand pattern of soda ash will change greatly. The trend of soda ash market from January to April is beyond the seasonal rule. In the case of low soda enterprise inventory, soda prices began to decline in March, and the decline further expanded in April, soda enterprise inventory rose. Yuanxing production is imminent, market sentiment pessimistic, short-term look at the domestic soda prices are still difficult to stop falling.

    From the seasonal point of view of the heavy alkali price in the past ten years, the overall heavy alkali price fluctuates little in January to April. From January to April in 2023, the heavy alkali price showed a trend of first rising and then falling, with large price fluctuations. From January to April, the mainstream terminal price of domestic heavy alkali is 2,800-3,200 yuan/ton, and the average price is 3,030 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year growth of 10% and a historical high in the same period.

    The spot price of soda ash period from January to April in 2023 rose and then fell. At the beginning of the year, the market for economic recovery is expected to be strong, coupled with the soda ash supply and demand pattern fundamentals continued to improve, the average price of heavy soda rose 265 yuan/ton from January to February. The domestic economy recovered moderately, the data of real estate completion was strong, but the new construction fell significantly, affecting the demand for front-end building materials and commodities.Overseas interest rates continued to rise, and economic data in Europe and the United States further weakened. In March, the banking crisis in Europe and the United States occurred, and overseas liquidity tightened. From the perspective of soda supply and demand, supported by high profits, the load rate of soda industry started to maintain at more than 90%. Since March, the quantity of imported goods has increased significantly, and the supply of goods is sufficient. Light soda downstream demand is weak, caustic soda price is low, negative soda soda market. The spot price of soda ash period in March - April fell significantly, and the basis gradually strengthened.

    At the same time as soda prices are falling, soda industry inventories are accumulating upstream. Based on the expectation of substantial expansion of new capacity in the future, upper, middle and downstream users all adopt the proactive destocking strategy. End users compressed soda inventory days, soda manufacturers flexible order delivery based. The price of soda soda continues to decline, driven by the mentality of buying up and not buying down, downstream users insist on using as they pick up, soda soda manufacturers' orders continue to weaken, and inventories continue to climb. In April, the inventory of soda soda enterprises increased by 180,000 tons, and the inventory of sample float glass enterprises decreased by 1 day.

    China Salt Hong Sifang's 200,000-ton soda ash plant plans to be put into operation in May, while Yuanxing Energy's first phase soda ash plant plans to be completed in June. Recently, the price of soda ash and ammonium chloride continues to decline, and the profit space of joint alkali factory is obviously shrinking, but the overall profit is still in a neutral and high position. From May to June, there are not many manufacturers that plan to overhaul and reduce the volume, and the space for the decrease of the load rate in the soda ash industry is limited. But with the continued weakening of ammonium chloride, soda ash market and inventory increase, later planned overhaul manufacturers are expected to increase. With the improvement of float glass manufacturers' profitability, more production lines are planned to resume production in the later stage. Meanwhile, some photovoltaic glass production lines also have ignition plans, and the demand for heavy alkali continues to grow. Light alkali downstream demand is general, short - term or still difficult to have a big improvement. Operators pessimistic attitude, short-term domestic soda market or continued decline, late need to pay attention to Yuanxing energy production time and summer overhaul scale.