Ammonium chloride fell to the lowest level in recent years, how is the future market?

      Since 2023, the market of ammonium chloride has fallen sharply, according to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the current market price of agricultural ammonium chloride dry ammonium in East China is 610 yuan/ton, down 46.72% from 1145 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year, and down 49.69% from the highest point of 1212 yuan/ton in the past six months. As of June 24, the center of gravity of fertilizer with ammonium chloride dry ammonium market offer in East China moved down to 560~620 yuan/ton, and the factory price fell to 550~620 yuan/ton.

      Overall, in the first half of the year, the supply side, the cost side and the demand side have formed a certain pressure on ammonium chloride to varying degrees. In the first half of the year, the construction of ammonium chloride was always at a high of 8-90%, and the supply of ammonium chloride continued to be loose. The price of liquid ammonia fell sharply, and the cost of ammonium chloride fell all the way in the first half of the year. The short-term recovery of the demand side after the year slightly supported ammonium chloride, making the ammonium chloride market in the first quarter high consolidation, the end of the late peak season, and in March began to fall sharply in urea prices, ammonium chloride alternative advantages are no longer superimposed costs and supply pressure, resulting in ammonium chloride market since late March began to fall sharply.

      At present, the price of ammonium chloride has reached a historic low price range. According to the commodity market analysis system of the Business community, from July 2013 to October 2017, the price of ammonium chloride has been below 600 yuan/ton for more than four years, from December 2017 to October 2019, the price is basically in the range of 600 to 900 yuan/ton, and the whole year of 2020 is stable. The market started to rise sharply in 2021 and reached its peak in October 2022, after which the market declined all the way.

      From the historical curve, the sharp fluctuations in the price of ammonium chloride only appeared in the past two years, and a round of rise since 2021 was driven by the expansion of external demand and the soaring price of urea; Since October 2022, on the one hand, the decline is due to the decline in urea prices, on the other hand, the high price of soda ash in the past two years, the high level of caustic soda construction driven by profits, the continuous supply pressure of ammonium chloride, the accumulation of ammonium chloride inventory gradually increased, and the high price of ammonium chloride fell sharply under the pressure of supply and demand.

Future market forecast:

      First of all, the domestic ammonium chloride market will still have new plant production plans in the future, the supply side pressure will continue to increase, it is understood that this year and next two years there are still Henan Jinshan, Anhui Red Square, Xiangyu salt, Lianyungang Debang, Lianyungang alkali industry, a total of about 4 million tons of equipment planned to put into production.

      Secondly, 80% ammonium chloride is used in the compound fertilizer industry. China's compound fertilizer industry started between 2 and 60% this year, always at a low level of operation, coupled with more demand for high-nitrogen fertilizer, in the absence of price advantages, the proportion of ammonium chloride use of compound fertilizer is relatively small. The future of ammonium chloride consumption space is not optimistic.

      Finally, since the beginning of this year, the domestic export of ammonium chloride has decreased significantly compared with previous years, which is not conducive to the rise of ammonium chloride market. According to customs data, from January to April, China exported 21,500 tons of ammonium chloride for fertilizer, down 74.46% year-on-year; Non-fertilizer ammonium chloride due to the implementation of zero tariffs, the export situation is relatively good, from January to April, a total of 41,800 tons exported, an increase of 5.26%. However, overall, from January to April this year, China's total exports of ammonium chloride fell 48.93% year-on-year.

      Overall, the current price of ammonium chloride has entered the historical low price range, the future pressure on the supply and demand side of ammonium chloride is still in, if there is no large device maintenance and parking or upward cost stimulus, ammonium chloride is difficult to have a large increase.