Baichuan Information and Soda Ash Fair Trade Workstation: (2024.4.1-4.28) Soda Ash Market Overview

Market overview: According to Baichuan Yingfu's tracking statistics, the average domestic light soda ash market price in April (April 1, 2024 - April 28, 2024) was 1,932 yuan/ton, compared with the average price in March of 1,945 yuan/ton. It dropped by 13 yuan/ton, or 0.67%; the average market price of heavy soda ash was 2,055 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton, or 0.82% from the average price in March of 2,072 yuan/ton.

In April, domestic soda ash prices first fell and then rose. In the first half of the month, upstream soda ash companies were under great pressure on their total inventory. Individual companies' offers were relatively conservative, and many new orders were negotiated at excessive prices. As the market volume of orders gathered, many upstream soda ash companies reported tight delivery conditions in the middle of the month. In the second half of the month, upstream manufacturers raised prices on the grounds of low inventory. In addition, futures expectations boosted the mentality of industry players, and the short-term holiday to fill orders further promoted the upward trend of actual order prices. The main factors that form the price are: first, the inventory growth is limited and concentrated in individual companies; second, the stimulation of import volume weakens; third, the sales pressure of upstream soda ash companies weakens due to over-subscription; fourth, the expected maintenance will boost the enthusiasm of downstream purchasing; Taking a comprehensive look at the market situation this month, the upward momentum at the end of the month is still good, and the market mainly operates in an upward trend during the month.

Supply: As of April 28, according to Baichuan Yingfu statistics, China's total domestic soda ash production capacity is 43.15 million tons (including 3.75 million tons of long-term suspended production capacity), and the total operating capacity of the equipment is 33.23 million tons (a total of 19 joint soda ash plants , with a total operating capacity of 16.37 million tons; 11 ammonia-alkali plants, with a total operating capacity of 11.98 million tons; and 3 trona plants, with a total production capacity of 4.88 million tons). This month, Shandong Haitian, Nanfang Alkali Industry, Tianjin Bohua, Boyuan Yingen, Hangzhou Longshan, and Anhui Hongsifang all have soda ash equipment load reduction and maintenance. During the month, the output fluctuated and the supply was mainly. The overall soda ash industry operating rate was 82.99%.

Inventory: Domestic soda ash manufacturers' spot inventory fluctuated this month, and the overall soda ash manufacturer's inventory remained between 700,000 and 770,000 tons. As of April 28, according to Baichuan Yingfu statistics, the average total inventory of domestic soda ash companies in April was approximately 738,000 tons, a narrow increase from the average of the previous month.

Demand: This month, the enthusiasm of domestic soda ash downstream users to obtain goods has changed significantly. In the early stage, downstream users insisted on negotiating prices to obtain goods. In the later period, purchasing sentiment was boosted by rising prices. Mainstream procurement is still mainly based on rigid demand, and the increase in demand is mainly reflected before the holiday. Reserve replenishment orders. Downstream of light alkali, daily glass, sodium metabisulfite, sodium bisulfite, disodium, metallurgy, printing and dyeing, water treatment and other industries currently have relatively limited changes in operating operations, and they have continued to receive goods in the near future. The lithium carbonate industry is experiencing weak changes in operating operations and stable demand; Glass factories downstream of heavy alkali mainly purchase goods at low prices. Because they have a certain reserve base and a small amount of imported alkali to make up orders, they still have strong bargaining power over domestic soda ash.

In terms of cost: the domestic soda ash cost this month mainly decreased compared with the previous month. Industrial salt prices continued to decline in April, which provided some support for the weakening costs. Although the domestic thermal coal market rose within a narrow range in April, the overall adjustment was narrow and the impact was limited. The synthetic ammonia market weakened in April, and the spot selling price once tested the bottom, which supported the cost side of soda ash, especially the cost impact of joint soda ash enterprises. As of April 28, the comprehensive average cost of soda ash manufacturers this month was approximately 1,475 yuan/ton, which was 77 yuan/ton lower than the average cost last month, a decrease of approximately 4.97%.

In terms of profits: the profits of the domestic soda ash industry increased within a narrow range this month. First of all, due to the decline in quotations and costs at the beginning of the month, profits can still remain stable. With the continued decline in cost prices and the narrow increase in market prices at the end of the month, the profits of its products have increased to a certain extent. As of April 28, the comprehensive average gross profit of the domestic soda ash industry was approximately 437 yuan/ton, an increase of 61 yuan/ton from the average gross profit last month, an increase of approximately 16.22%.（Baichuan Yingfu Information）