China Soda Ash Glass Market Weekly Report 20240519

Soda ash’s view: hold short orders at 2300-2250 for a short test, stop loss if it breaks through 2400, and take profit at 1850-1900;

Logic: Soda ash has been looking at the main range of 1650-2050 throughout the year, and the range of breakthroughs in the upper and lower spaces is not high for the time being;

The surface demand of light alkali has declined for three consecutive weeks; the driving force of this round of surge has weakened; the downstream of heavy alkali maintains speculative replenishment, and the inventory of raw materials is no longer low; the inventory rises and falls during the maintenance season, the overall fluctuation is small, and seasonal destocking. It is difficult to cash in the profits, and not removing the treasury will be interpreted as driving the negative; the market price rose from 1850 to 2300, a large increase, the valuation is not low, the downstream acceptance is slightly low, and there will be a stalemate on replenishment in the mid-term;

This week I heard that 50,000 tons of imported alkali arrived in Hong Kong; inventory in factory + delivery warehouses accumulated; the market performance was stronger than expected, breaking through the previous high. Last week, the view was that it was high and volatile. On Friday, with real estate news and Qinghai salt shortage news, the market broke through. At the previous high, the benefits of real estate news for soda ash are not obvious, and the lack of salt in Qinghai is not true. There is no persuasive logic for the new high on the market, but the valuation is not extreme.

Maintaining last week's view, position management is a test of short positions (the water indicator will not be speculated for the time being under high prices), and we will still see soda ash returning to the shock position of 1850 in the future.

Glass View: Fundamentals are bearish, short-term shocks are strong, focus on short selling at high levels.

Strategy: Last week, short positions maintained the view of reducing positions. The upper side is temporarily looking at the pressure level of 1650-1700. Next week, the view will focus on short selling opportunities.

Logic: The current profit of glass is acceptable, the motivation for cold repairs is not strong, and cold repairs are all planned. The weak view still exists. The strength of this round of downstream replenishment is weak, and facing the rainy season, glass will rise due to commodity sentiment. The pressure is still high; the real estate policy was introduced last week, which is obviously beneficial to glass, but the market reaction is weak, the enthusiasm of futures merchants to take goods has weakened, and the positive feedback has not yet been realized.

The cost of coal production is 1330, and the production profit is acceptable; the inventory accumulation trend will continue after late April, and the inventory in the third quarter may be high and flat.

Risk points: Speculative replenishment brought about by short-term funding relief.

Glass data: Table demand continues to improve this week, and inventory is expected to accumulate next week; the current bad news is that rigid demand is still weak; in the medium term, rigid demand remains stable, speculation is small, and it is still difficult to judge effective destocking; in terms of price, Shahe prices fluctuate ,1550-1590; Hubei 1520

Judging from the combination of new construction starts and completions, the accumulation of completions continues to decline year-on-year, and there is no upward inflection point. The high point of glass demand may have been reached, while the glass supply is at a high level; (FIRST FUTURES)