From 2024 to 2025, at least 13.3 million tons of alumina production capacity will be put into production, and the annual increase in caustic soda demand will be 918,000 tons. The caustic soda bull market will only show its peak!

1.The production progress of Lu A Alumina’s 4.8 million alumina production capacity

Line 1 is expected to be put into operation at the end of August

Line 2 is expected to be put into operation at the end of October

The 3rd and 4th lines will be put into operation in the first quarter of 2025.

Line 1 and Line 2 consume 2.4 million tons of alumina alkali: In June, Lu A Alumina stored a small amount of alkali for the 2.4 million tons of alumina production capacity added in 2024, but most of the alkali has not yet been stored. For every 1 million tons of alumina, based on the alkali consumption of 50,000 tons (Guinea Mine), the first two lines will consume 58,000 tons of alkali in 2024. Including the 24,000 tons required for tank filling in the early stage, a total of 82,000 tons will be needed in 2024. 10,000 tons of caustic soda, with alkali consumption of 120,000 tons in 2025.

The time to buy alkali is July and September.

The 3rd and 4th lines will consume 2.4 million alumina alkali in 2025: If calculated from January 25, plus the 24,000 tons required for tank filling, the total alkali consumption will be 144,000 tons.

The time to buy alkali is November (if it is determined to be put into production in January 2025).

Q&A:

（1）Is the production capacity of each line 1 million or 1.2 million?

Based on the configured ball mill and diaphragm pump equipment, the production capacity is estimated to be 1.3 million.

（2）Will the original replaced 2 million production capacity be stopped after the new production capacity is put into production?

According to information provided by industry insiders, due to the high profits of alumina, the probability of the original replacement capacity being discontinued in 24 years is extremely small.

2.Guangxi Huasheng Phase II 2.4 million alumina production progress

When it is put into operation in October 2024, alkali will generally be purchased in batches 2 months in advance. The time for purchasing alkali is August. The alkali consumption in 2024 will be 44,000 tons (including tank filling), and the alkali consumption in 2025 will be 120,000 tons.

3.The production progress of 1 million alumina in Mampawa, Indonesia

It will be put into production in October 2024. It will use Indonesian mines and consume 100 kilograms of alkali. In May, we have inquired with domestic traders. Since alkali needs to be imported from China, it will take a longer time. Under normal circumstances, it will start from July to August. Order from China. The alkali consumption will be 26,000 tons in 2024 and 100,000 tons in 2025.

4.Shandong Innovation 1 million alumina production progress

It is planned to be December 25, 2024, and no later than February 2025. The time to buy alkali is from November to January. The alkali consumption in 2025 will be 60,000 tons.

5.Inner Mongolia Zhixuan New Materials’ second line of 500,000 alumina production progress

It is planned to be put into production in December 2024. The alkali consumption in 2025 will be 60,000 tons, and the actual purchase of alkali will be in November.

6.Guangtou Beihai 2.4 million alumina production progress

According to the current project progress, it is expected to be put into production in March 2025, and the alkali purchase time is February 2025. Alkali consumption in 2025 will be 134,000 tons.

7.Progress in resuming production of 1.2 million alumina in Australia

Production was previously reduced due to natural gas pipeline failures. The natural gas pipeline has now been repaired. After the natural gas inventory increases to a reasonable inventory, the 1.2 million alumina production capacity will resume production. It is expected to be in September, and the alkali purchase time will be from July to August. The alkali consumption will be 60,000 tons in 2024 and 180,000 tons in 2025.

From January to April, my country's liquid caustic soda export volume was 633,200 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 24.33%, which is partly related to the reduction in Australian alumina production.

To sum up, we can draw the following key messages:

（1） From August 2024 to the end of the year, the alumina production capacity will be put into operation and resumed at 8.5 million tons, with an additional alkali consumption of 212,000 tons.

（2）The alumina production capacity will be 4.8 million tons in 2025 + 8.5 million tons of annual production in August 2024, with an additional alkali consumption of 918,000 tons.

The above data are conservative estimates and do not include Oriental Hope's 1 million alumina production capacity, Oriental Hope Beihai's 2 million alumina production capacity, Hebei Wenfeng's 4.8 million alumina production capacity, and the resumption of domestic mine alumina production capacity.