Upstream raw materials rise, phosphate ore fry atmosphere is stronger, the future trend of ammonium phosphate?

Recently, monoammonium phosphate upstream raw material product prices have risen. Among them, the weekly sulfur price of Yangtze River Port increased by 3.21%, Hubei synthetic ammonia increased by 3%, and southwest sulfuric acid increased significantly. However, the downstream compound fertilizer market into the slow season, the industry capacity utilization rate continues to decline, the demand for monoammonium phosphate has also slowed down. Upstream raw material prices rise, downstream start load decline, monoammonium phosphate prices continue to maintain high finishing.

1. upstream raw material prices more rise

Sulfur yellow: the international sulfur yellow market price is firm. It is reported that the firm quotation of mainstream resources in the Yangtze River market is at CFR110 USD / ton; the bidding price in Qatar is at the middle level of FOB at 80 USD / ton; The Yangtze River port spot market is supported by the downstream incremental demand, the owner mentality is good, and the price continues to increase slightly. Sulfuric acid: the recent local areas of sulfuric acid market strong operation, sulfur prices rose, sulfur acid cost support strength increased. Downstream phosphate fertilizer operating rate to maintain a high level, the demand support strength is strong. The southwest market is driven by the increased demand, and the local supply of sulfuric acid is insufficient, which needs to be supplemented externally. Recently, the supply of goods into the market is tight price rise, leading to a significant increase in the sulfuric acid market. Synthetic ammonia: Recently, the market trend of the main producing areas of phosphate fertilizer fluctuated, the supply in Hubei was reduced, the manufacturers improved, and the price rebounded. Southwest part of the phosphate fertilizer plant rotation maintenance, the overall demand is general. Phosphate ore: At present, the main producing areas in southern China are in the rainy season, and the local phosphate ore mining is blocked, and the atmosphere of low-grade phosphate ore speculation in Yunnan, Sichuan and other places is strong. Northern phosphate ore demand increased, Hebei region phosphate ore (powder) prices increased. Other regions of the mainstream grade phosphate ore supply and demand continue to game, high price finishing.

2. Downstream operating rate continued to decline

Since June, the capacity utilization rate of domestic downstream compound fertilizer has continued to decline. By the end of June, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 33.77%, down 2.37 percentage points from the previous month and more by more than 16 percentage points compared with the end of May. From the perspective of mainstream areas, the parking of small and medium-sized compound fertilizer enterprises in Hubei increases successively, but the load reduction of large enterprises is limited; with the ending of topdressing, the load reduction or shutdown situation of compound fertilizer enterprises in Hebei increases further; some small and medium-sized compound fertilizer enterprises in Jiangsu and Anhui stop, and the operating load of large enterprises decreases; the construction situation of medium-sized compound fertilizer enterprises in Shandong is stable; the seasonal demand in Henan decreases, and the high temperature conditions are not suitable for high tower production, and the operating load of local compound fertilizer devices is low. At present, the autumn advance harvest operation of compound fertilizer has not been fully launched, coupled with the raw material price is high, the production enthusiasm of compound fertilizer enterprises is not high, it is expected that the equipment operating rate of enterprises will remain low in the short term. Although the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate is still expected to decline, but at this stage ammonium phosphate factory pending sufficient orders, orders are still limited orders. Ammonium phosphate raw materials are still more tentative rise, especially the recent phosphate ore speculation atmosphere is strong, once the price rises, will further drive market sentiment again. Because autumn is the peak season for high phosphate fertilizer demand, at present, compound fertilizer enterprises monoammonium phosphate stock is insufficient. The supply of monoammonium phosphate is also increasing, with an average weekly output exceeding 230,000 tons. With the resumption of maintenance equipment in Yunnan and Hubei province in July, the output will continue to increase. Therefore, an ammonium phosphate in the future for a period of time will maintain a high consolidation of the market.(Agricultural materials guide report)