Liquid: alumina market in the first half of the year

As the largest downstream industry of caustic soda, the alumina market will have a strong supporting role on liquid prices in the first half of 2024. From the price point of view, alumina prices, the first half of the strong operation, to some extent, the support of liquid prices rose slightly. From the perspective of demand, the alumina production decreased slightly in the first half of the year, and there was no increment in liquid demand.

Alumina prices rose in the first half of the year, the liquid prices have a certain support

In the first half of 2024, the alumina industry due to the tight increase of raw material supply, the output is slightly reduced and the price bias strong operation. According to zhuochuang information tracking, the average price of Shandong alumina in the first half of the year was 3434.87 yuan / ton, up 541.48 yuan / ton compared with the first half of last year 2893.39 yuan / ton, up 18.71%. In the first half of 2024, the average price of 32% wave in Shandong is about 767.83 yuan / ton, down 13.51% compared with the average price of 887.74 yuan / ton in the first half of last year. From the six-year average price, alumina and wave price contrary. But from the price trend, this year, alumina prices showed an upward trend, and the liquid also showed a small upward trend. In the first half of the year, when the growth rate of supply was greater than the growth rate of demand, the wave price rose slightly. On the one hand, the periodic supply side was repaired, which slightly supported the price; on the other hand, it was mainly boosted by the rise of alumina price.

In the first half of the alumina production reduction on the liquid demand without increment

Alumina industry capacity in the first half of this year has expanded compared with the first half of last year, but the tight first half of bauxite supply, the production capacity operation rate is low, the first half of alumina operation capacity 72.77%, 0.86 percentage points lower than the first half of last year 73.63%, from January to June in 2024 alumina cumulative output 40.466 million tons, 1.14% less than 41.2355 million tons in the same period last year. However, some alumina enterprises use low-grade bauxite in stages, and the single consumption of caustic soda increases slightly. Therefore, the liquid demand of alumina industry this year is not less compared with the first half of last year.

From the perspective of liquid fundamentals, the supply in the first half of 2024 is relatively sufficient, and the demand performance is flat, but the trend of liquid price is slightly upward, to some extent affected by the strong alumina price and the increase in profits.

Alumina production in the second half of the year increased slightly and the price continued to run high

In the second half of the year, the supply shortage of alumina raw materials is difficult to be significantly alleviated, and the production capacity operation rate may be about 80%, but in the fourth quarter, 3.5 million tons of production capacity may be put into production, the supply may increase slightly, and the demand for liquid may increase slightly. But from the price point of view, the supply of alumina is relatively tight, the price may continue to maintain high shock, profit growth space is limited, the support of the wave market is general.

Comprehensive alumina demand and price changes, alumina industry in the second half of the wave market still has a certain benefit. However, the impact of profit still needs to pay more attention to the resumption of domestic bauxite production and the supply of imported bauxite, the change in the operation rate of alumina production capacity and the production progress of new alumina production capacity.(Zhuochuang Information)